Journal of Forest Economics > Vol 18 > Issue 1

An econometric model for ex ante prediction of wildfire suppression costs

Jonathan Yoder, , Krista Gebert
Suggested Citation
Jonathan Yoder and Krista Gebert (2012), "An econometric model for ex ante prediction of wildfire suppression costs", Journal of Forest Economics: Vol. 18: No. 1, pp 76-89.

Publication Date: 0/1/2012
© 0 2012 Jonathan Yoder, Krista Gebert
JEL Codes:Q20C13
Wildfire suppression costsBivariate truncated regression


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In this article:
Model and estimation 


This paper develops an econometric model that can provide predictions of fire suppression costs (per acre and in total) for a given large fire before final fire acreage is known. The model jointly estimates cost per acre and acreage equations via Maximum Likelihood, accounting for sample truncation based on final fire size. Formulas and results are shown for predictions of costs and fire size for wildfires in general, and for large fires in particular. Marginal effects of explanatory variables on cost and acreage are discussed. The distribution of these model predictions illustrates the importance of accounting for sample truncation when generating predicted outcomes based on ex ante information.