Journal of Forest Economics > Vol 20 > Issue 3

Projecting county pulpwood production with historical production and macro-economic variables

Consuelo Brandeis, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, United States, cbrandeis@fs.fed.us , Dayton M. Lambert, University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, United States
 
Suggested Citation
Consuelo Brandeis and Dayton M. Lambert (2014), "Projecting county pulpwood production with historical production and macro-economic variables", Journal of Forest Economics: Vol. 20: No. 3, pp 305-315. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfe.2014.09.002

Publication Date: 0/8/2014
© 0 2014 Consuelo Brandeis, Dayton M. Lambert
 
Subjects
 
Keywords
County pulpwood forecast, Vector autoregressive, Spatial panel VAR
 

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In this article:
Introduction 
Literature review 
Methods 
Data sources and model specification 
Results and discussion 
Conclusions 

Abstract

We explored forecasting of county roundwood pulpwood production with county-vector autoregressive (CVAR) and spatial panel vector autoregressive (SPVAR) methods. The analysis used timber products output data for the state of Florida, together with a set of macro-economic variables. Overall, we found the SPVAR specification produced forecasts with lower error rates compared to CVAR specifications. Nonetheless, high forecast errors across counties revealed the uncertainty associated with projecting volumes of county pulpwood production.

DOI:10.1016/j.jfe.2014.09.002