Journal of Forest Economics > Vol 35 > Issue x

Prospects for the Norwegian Forest Sector: A Green Shift to Come?

Erik Trömborg, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Norway, erik.tromborg@nmbu.no Eirik Ogner Jåstad, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Norway, Torjus Folsland Bolkesjø, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Norway, Per Kristian Rørstad, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Norway,
 
Suggested Citation
Erik Trömborg, Eirik Ogner Jåstad, Torjus Folsland Bolkesjø and Per Kristian Rørstad (2020), "Prospects for the Norwegian Forest Sector: A Green Shift to Come?", Journal of Forest Economics: Vol. 35: No. x, pp x-xx. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/112.00000517

Forthcoming: 30 Sep 2020
© 2020 E. Trømborg, E. O. Jåstad, T. F. Bolkesjø, and P. K. Rørstad
 
Subjects
 
Keywords
DelphiForest sector modelingPartial equilibriumForest product markets
 

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In this article:
1. Introduction
2. Methods
3. Results
4. Discussion and Conclusions
Appendix
References

Abstract

The forest-based sectors are in a period of significant transition due to climate change mitigation efforts, changes in forest products demand and other external mega-trends. This study applies a three-step Delphi process to identify the main drivers and formulate possible scenarios for the development of the Norwegian forest sector towards 2040. The impacts of these scenarios are analyzed with a partial equilibrium forest sector model covering the Nordic countries. Experts in the sectors expected a further decrease in demand for printing and writing paper, but a significant increase in wood-based biofuel production. A “conservative” scenario, with a prolongation of current trends and no wood-based biofuel production, leads to declining wood prices but still slightly increased harvest levels in the Nordic countries—especially in Norway, due to increased timber volumes available for harvest. In a “green” scenario, the production of wood-based biofuels and new forest products increased, leading to higher wood prices from the end of the next decade. This will further decrease the production of printing paper.

DOI:10.1561/112.00000517