Journal of Forest Economics > Vol 35 > Issue 4

Quantifying the Announcement Effects in the U.S. Lumber Futures Market

Zarina Ismailova, West Virginia University, USA, Xiaoli Etienne, West Virginia University, USA, , Shishir Shakya, West Virginia University, USA, Fabio Mattos, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA
Suggested Citation
Zarina Ismailova, Xiaoli Etienne, Shishir Shakya and Fabio Mattos (2020), "Quantifying the Announcement Effects in the U.S. Lumber Futures Market", Journal of Forest Economics: Vol. 35: No. 4, pp 375-395.

Publication Date: 27 Aug 2020
© 2020 Z. Ismailova, X. Etienne, S. Shakya and F. Mattos
Lumberfutures pricesvolatilityhousing startsnew home salespublic reportsinventoryGARCH


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In this article:
1. Introduction 
2. Empirical Strategies 
3. Data and Variable Descriptions 
4. Estimation Results 
5. Conclusions 


The impact of information release from public report announcements has been widely investigated in many commodity markets, but little attention has been paid to the lumber market. In this paper, we use generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models to examine the effect of two housing market reports, namely the New Residential Construction (Housing Starts) and the New Residential Sales reports, on the U.S. lumber futures market from 2000 to 2017. Our results suggest that the housing starts report indeed affects lumber market volatility, while the new home sales report exerts a minor impact. We further find that the effect of the two reports decreases with inventory levels and differs depending on the nature of the news. When the level of inventory is low, larger-than-expected housing starts has a more substantial effect than lower-than-expected housing starts. During periods of abundant stocks, however, lower-than-expected housing starts increase the volatility more than larger-than-expected news. For the new home sales reports, we find that while lower-than-expected sales do not affect lumber price volatility, larger-than-expected sales do increase the volatility.