Journal of Forest Economics > Vol 38 > Issue 4

Estimating the Effects of Covid-19 and Softwood Lumber Prices

Rebecca Zanello, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Saskatchewan, Canada, , Papa Yaw Owusu, Department of Economics, University of Victoria, Canada, G. Cornelis van Kooten, Department of Economics, University of Victoria, Canada
Suggested Citation
Rebecca Zanello, Papa Yaw Owusu and G. Cornelis van Kooten (2024), "Estimating the Effects of Covid-19 and Softwood Lumber Prices", Journal of Forest Economics: Vol. 38: No. 4, pp 429-449.

Publication Date: 21 Feb 2024
© 2024 R. Zanello, P. Y. Owusu and G. C. van Kooten
JEL Codes: Q23, L73, Q27, F18
Lumber pricesCovid pandemicevent analysisregression discontinuity


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In this article:
1. Introduction and Background 
2. Data and Methods 
3. Results 
4. Discussion and Conclusions 


During the Covid-19 pandemic, markets observed unprecedented changes in U.S. and Canadian softwood lumber prices and their volatility. In this paper, we employ an event-based model to estimate the impact of Covid-19 on the prices of softwood lumber, utilizing a Regression Discontinuity design model to investigate the potential causal effect of Covid-19 on softwood lumber prices. Our econometric analyses serve to provide evidence that softwood lumber price increases during the pandemic were not completely random but could instead be attributed in part to variations in recent global and regional events. Our research highlights the need for the adoption of robust and adaptable strategies and provision of information important for risk assessment and decision-making in industries that rely on softwood lumber inputs.