Journal of Forest Economics > Vol 39 > Issue 2

Impacts of Long-term Strategies for the Swedish Forest Sector: Analyses with the BioFrame Integrated Modelling Framework

Ljusk Ola Eriksson, Department of Forestry and Wood Technology, Linnaeus University, Sweden, ola.eriksson@lnu.se , Ragnar Jonsson, Department of Energy and Technology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden, Göran Berndes, Department of Space, Earth and Environment, Physical Resource Theory, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden, Nicklas Forsell, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria, Fulvio di Fulvio, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria, Bishnu C. Poudel, Department of Forestry and Wood Technology, Linnaeus University, Sweden, Johan Bergh, Department of Forestry and Wood Technology, Linnaeus University, Sweden
 
Suggested Citation
Ljusk Ola Eriksson, Ragnar Jonsson, Göran Berndes, Nicklas Forsell, Fulvio di Fulvio, Bishnu C. Poudel and Johan Bergh (2024), "Impacts of Long-term Strategies for the Swedish Forest Sector: Analyses with the BioFrame Integrated Modelling Framework", Journal of Forest Economics: Vol. 39: No. 2, pp 137-185. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/112.00000576

Publication Date: 11 Jul 2024
© 2024 L. O. Eriksson et al.
 
Subjects
Applications and case studies,  Operations research
 
Keywords
JEL Codes: F18, Q23, Q52, Q57
 

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In this article:
1. Introduction 
2. Forest Sector Model SweFor 
3. Policy-motivated Strategies 
4. Results 
5. Discussion 
A. SweFor Mathematical Model Description 
B. Reliability Check 
C. Sensitivity Analysis 
References 

Abstract

The European Union (EU) does not have a common forestry policy but EU policies can indirectly affect the forest sector. This study departs from the EU “Fit for 55” package of legislation and uses a forest sector model to simulate and analyze three responses in the Swedish forest sector (2020–2100) to policy initiatives addressing climate change and biodiversity: (i) increasing the area of set-asides with 50%; (ii) prohibiting harvest of old forest (>120/140 years of age); and (iii) extending the minimum allowed age for final harvest with 30%. Results indicate that, while all three responses can reduce net carbon emissions compared to business-as-usual, extension of the minimum allowed age for final harvest reduces emissions the most. In general, the effects on net carbon emissions are highly correlated with the level of harvest. Increasing the area of set-asides and prohibiting old forest harvest help preserve old forest better than both business-as-usual and final felling age regulation. Longer-term results are uncertain as policies and technology development can radically change biomass use, product portfolios and displacement effects.

DOI:10.1561/112.00000576