Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy > Vol 3 > Issue 3–4

Identifying the “Downsian Ceiling”: When Does Polarization Make Appealing to One’s Base More Attractive than Moderating to the Center

Samuel Merrill, III, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Wilkes University, USA, sammerrill3@comcast.net , Bernard Grofman, Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies, University of California, Irvine, USA, bgrofman@uci.edu , Thomas Brunell, Political Science, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, The University of Texas at Dallas, USA, tbrunell@utdallas.edu
 
Suggested Citation
Samuel Merrill, III, Bernard Grofman and Thomas Brunell (2022), "Identifying the “Downsian Ceiling”: When Does Polarization Make Appealing to One’s Base More Attractive than Moderating to the Center", Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy: Vol. 3: No. 3–4, pp 273-293. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/113.00000060

Publication Date: 01 Dec 2022
© 2022 S. Merrill, B. Grofman, and T. Brunell
 
Subjects
 
Keywords
Polarizationmobilize the basemedian voterabstentionNash equilibrium
 

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In this article:
Introduction 
Modelling the Effects of Polarization on Party Loyalty and the Importance of Party Activists within the Party 
Appealing to the Party Base 
Discussion and Conclusions 
References 

Abstract

There are two basic strategies in which candidates in two-party partisan contests may engage: (1) the Downsian strategy of tailoring their platform to appeal to the views of the median voter in the electorate, and (2) seeking to motivate high turnout levels among their key supporters (their partisan base) by taking positions popular with that base. High polarization alters expected payoffs from each strategy by enhancing party loyalty, on average, and increasing the influence of voters with more extreme views. Thus, as polarization rises, expected gains to be made from mobilizing turnout among one’s base increase while expected gains to be made from moving in a more moderate direction decrease. Applying a spatial model analysis of parties undergoing polarization under the threat of abstention, we find that Downsian convergence to the overall median is maintained as long as polarization remains below a “Downsian ceiling,” but beyond that ceiling, ever more divergent party strategies are optimal. These Nash equilibrium locations can be much closer to the medians of the respective party bases than to the overall median of the electorate. Hence increases in polarization should foster an emphasis on a “mobilize the base strategy.”

DOI:10.1561/113.00000060

Companion

Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy, Volume 3, Issue 3-4 Special Issue - The Political Economy of Polarization
See the other articles that are part of this special issue.