Quarterly Journal of Political Science > Vol 18 > Issue 2

The Manchin Paradox

Keith Krehbiel, Edward B. Rust Professor of Political Science, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, USA, krehbiel@stanford.edu , Sara Krehbiel, Assistant Professor, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Santa Clara University, USA, skrehbiel@scu.edu
 
Suggested Citation
Keith Krehbiel and Sara Krehbiel (2023), "The Manchin Paradox", Quarterly Journal of Political Science: Vol. 18: No. 2, pp 277-293. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00021165

Publication Date: 11 Apr 2023
© 2023 K. Krehbiel and S. Krehbiel
 
Subjects
 
Keywords
Filibustermedian voter theorymonopoly agenda-settingpivotal politicsprocedural choicesuper-majoritarianismlegislative organizationSenate reform
 

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In this article:
Paradox 
The Game 
Analysis 
Robustness 
Conclusion 
Appendix: Proofs 
References 

Abstract

We identify and analyze an enigma of U.S. Senate procedure. Why does its pivotal voter under simple-majority voting prefer that the body makes law using super-majority cloture (e.g., the filibuster, or threat thereof, within the strictures of Rule XXII)? Using a two-stage game of procedural choice and policy choice, we reveal and rationalize the Manchin Paradox and explore its implications for super-majoritarianism and legislative organization.

DOI:10.1561/100.00021165