Business decisions are increasingly based on data and statistical analyses. Managerial intuition plays an important role at various stages of the analytics process. It is thus important to understand how managers intuitively think about data and statistics. This article reviews a wide range of empirical results from almost a century of research on intuitive statistics. The results support four key insights: (1) Variance is not intuitive; (2) Perfect correlation is the intuitive reference point; (3) People conflate correlation with slope; and (4) Nonlinear functions and interaction effects are not intuitive. These insights have implications for the development, implementation, and evaluation of statistical models in marketing and beyond. I provide several such examples and offer suggestions for future research.
Managerial Decision Making in Marketing: Introduction to the Special Issue
, Journal of Marketing Behavior, Volume 2, Issue 2-3 10.1561/107.00000030
This is the introduction from special issue editor B. Wierenga.
Kind and Wicked Experience in Marketing Management
, Journal of Marketing Behavior, Volume 2, Issue 2-3 10.1561/107.00000031
This article by R. M. Hogarth and E. Soyer deals with the role of experience in marketing.
Managerial Decision-Making in Marketing: Matching the Demand and Supply Side of Creativity
, Journal of Marketing Behavior, Volume 2, Issue 2-3 10.1561/107.00000033
This article by N. Althuizen, B. Wierenga, and B. Chen provides an overview of creativity research in marketing and offers a novel framework for matching the demand and supply side of creativity.
Marketers' Intuitions about the Sales Effectiveness of Advertisements
, Journal of Marketing Behavior, Volume 2, Issue 2-3 10.1561/107.00000034
This article by N. Hartnett, R. Kennedy, B. Byron, and L. Greenacre examines the quality of marketers’ intuitions about the effectiveness of advertising.
Selecting Predictive Metrics for Marketing Dashboards - An Analytical Approach
, Journal of Marketing Behavior, Volume 2, Issue 2-3 10.1561/107.00000035
This article by K. Pauwels and A. Joshi is about the selection of predictive measures for marketing dashboards.
Sales Presentation Anxiety, Cortisol Levels, Self-Reports, and Gene-Gene Interactions
, Journal of Marketing Behavior, Volume 2, Issue 2-3 10.1561/107.00000036
This article by W. Verbeke, R. P. Bagozzi, W. van den Berg, L. Worm, and F. D. Belschak uses methods from neuroscience to study the mechanism behind SPA at three levels, genetic make-up, endocrine processes and self-reported stress experience.
Journal of Marketing Behavior, Volume 2, Issue 2-3 ICT-based Strategies for Environmental Conflicts: Articles Overiew
See the other articles that are part of this special issue.