Strategic Management Review > Vol 3 > Issue 1

Unknown Unknowns and the Treatment of Firm-Level Adaptation in Strategic Management Research

Timo Ehrig, Department of Strategy and Innovation, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark, Te.si@cbs.dk , Nicolai J. Foss, Department of Strategy and Innovation, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark, njf.si@cbs.dk
 
Suggested Citation
Timo Ehrig and Nicolai J. Foss (2022), "Unknown Unknowns and the Treatment of Firm-Level Adaptation in Strategic Management Research", Strategic Management Review: Vol. 3: No. 1, pp 1-24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/111.00000035

Publication Date: 07 Feb 2022
© 2022 now Publishers, Inc.
 
Subjects
Competitive strategy,  Knowledge, innovation, and technology,  Strategy process and practice,  Research methodology in strategic management
 
Keywords
Unknown unknownsuncertaintycompetitive advantagebeliefs
 

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In this article:
Introduction 
From Known Knowns to Unknown Unknowns in Strategy 
A Technology for Handling Unknown Unknowns 
Coming to Grips with Unknown Unknowns in Strategy Research 
Conclusions: How the Proposed Agenda May Influence Strategy 
References 

Abstract

"Unknown unknowns," that is, future contingencies that lack an ex ante description for some decision-makers for whom the contingency is relevant, are fundamental to strategy theory and practice. And yet, most strategy research is founded on the assumption that the future can be described in terms of "known unknowns," that is, future contingencies that are known in principle (but whether and how they actually occur is unknown). We discuss the importance of unknown unknowns for strategy, focusing specifically on firm-level adaptation. We also discuss why prior literature has failed to address unknown unknowns, and outline key points that should be addressed by a program of research into the nature and role of unknown unknowns in strategy.

DOI:10.1561/111.00000035